14.03.24

Während ich am Donnerstag diese Zeilen schreibe, führt Liverpool in der Europa League gegen Sparta Prag nach einer Viertelstunde 4:0, nachdem man das Auswärtsspiel mit 5:1 für sich entscheiden konnte. Liverpool spielt hier mit einer unerträglichen Leichtigkeit des Seins, der sport-gewordene Titel des Kultromans vom Tschechen Milan Kundera wird gerade den Tschechen weh tun. In Europas Championships setzen sich sowieso nur noch die ganz Grossen durch, Aussenseitersiege bleiben aus, zu gross sind die Unterschiede. Auch bei den Trainern. Und der Allerbeste ist für mich Jürgen Klopp, dessen vor kurzem angekündigter Ausstieg bei Liverpool mich zum Nachdenken brachte. Vor allem das Wording: »Ich bin wie ein Sportwagen, der mit 170, 180 Meilen pro Stunde unterwegs ist, aber nur ich kann sehen, dass der Tank allmählich leer wird. But I know i cannot do the Job again and again and again." Champions League Worte. Und in der Zwischenzeit spielt und coacht man noch mit der unerträglichen Leichtigkeit des Seins,

 

Stabilization at a moderate pace (Martin Ertl)

19 Nov

Martin Ertl

Business and sentiment indicators have stabilized at low levels, a turning point has not yet been fully confirmed by the data. The German economy has avoided a technical recession in Q3 with 0.1 % GDP growth. Manufacturing industries remain in contraction. Growth in CEE countries continues to be above the EU average, being particularly strong in Poland and Hungary. During the third quarter, the Euro Area economy has avoided a further deterioration in economic momentum. GDP growth has been confirmed at 0.2 % (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted), which is unchanged to the previous quarter. Further, the expected technical recession in Germany (two consecutive quarters of negative q q GDP growth) has not materialized. The pace of economic expansion seems to have stabilized for now at a moderat...     » Weiterlesen


 

USA: The ‘Mid-cycle’ adjustment in key interest rates is done & Euro Area: Germany...

04 Nov

Martin Ertl

US: The ‘Mid-cycle’ interest rate adjustment is done. The Fed concludes its adjustment in the key interest rate as the economy continues a solid expansion but some weak spots occur. In Q3 2019 the US economy continued its expansion. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.9 % (q q, annualized rate) after 2.5 % during H1 2019. The expenditure components reveal that growth remains driven by personal consumption expenditure (2.9 %), while the second consecutive decline in fixed investment (-1.3 %) indicates weakening business dynamism. Investment in structures and equipment fell by 15.3 % and 3.8 % whereas residential investment rose by 5.1 %. In addition, net exports again deducted from GDP growth as imports growth outpaced exports (1.2 % and 0.7 %). Finally, government consumption c...     » Weiterlesen


 

Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Lower growth ahead (Martin Ertl)

16 Oct

Martin Ertl

Global economic prospects further weakened as trade disputes remain unsolved. Deceleration has become increasingly synchronized. Conflicting business cycle signals raise the uncertainty about the short-term Euro Area outlook. Sentiment and growth have been slowing, yet labor markets appear robust. Austria’s economy is cooling. While household consumption and construction provide support, manufacturing industries herald a slowdown. Central- and Eastern Europe continues to outpace growth in the Euro Area. It is unlikely that the region can fully decouple from the Euro Area business cycle, yet substantial improvements in labor markets have made CEE more resilient. Leading central banks (ECB & Fed) have added monetary policy stimulus. Without a major reversal in monetary policy, the cu...     » Weiterlesen


 

Macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy & the ECB’s new stimulus p...

16 Sep

Martin Ertl

New monetary stimulus package lowers the deposit facility rate to -0.5 % and restarts QE at a monthly pace of 20 billion Euro (open ended). Previous unconventional monetary policy has led to a rise in inflation by 0.6 %-age points. The European Central Bank provides additional monetary stimulus by lowering the interest rates further into negative territory and restarting net asset purchases (QE). The cut of the interest rate on the deposit facility by 10 basis points (bp), to -0.5 %, was widely expected. Part of the banks’ excess liquidity holdings will be exempt from negative deposit rates, introducing a two-tier system. The exempt tier, which is initially set at 6 times an institution’s minimum reserve requirements, is remunerated at an annual rate of 0 %. QE will start in November ...     » Weiterlesen


 

New ECB QE and its effects on interest rates (Martin Ertl)

09 Sep

Martin Ertl

The ECB is expected to introduce new unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we calculate the free-float of German government bonds, which has become very low. In addition, we make use of recent evidence about QE effects on term premia to sketch monetary policy options. Large scale asset purchases (LSAP), or “quantitative easing” (QE), are intended to decrease long-term yields and ease financing conditions thereby stimulating aggregate demand and bring inflation back in line with the central bank’s price stability objective. The ECB launched the asset purchase programme (APP) in January 2015, which initially pledged the purchase of 60 billion EUR of securities each month. The asset purchases ended in December 2018 when the portfolio had reached around 2.6 trillion EUR....     » Weiterlesen


14.03.24

Pi Day. An der Wiener Börse tut sich heuer bisher nicht so viel, daher war heute die Mathematik-Ablenkung meine grosse Herausforderung. Ich wollte den tagesaktuellen Podcast für die Wiener Börse Party https://boerse-social.com/2024/03/14/wiener_borse_party_609_verbund_hat_12_mrd_fur_den_bund_und_praferenz_fur_den_bond_am_pi_day_eine_valneva-spekulation nämlich exakt um 1:59:26 Uhr pm rausbringen, was auch gelungen ist. Fertig war das Ding schon ca. 30 Minuten früher, aber Nerd ist Nerd und Podcast muss wegen Nerd warten.. Das kommt so: Am 14.3. feiern Mathematiker um "3/14 1:59:26 pm", damit hat man Pi bis zur siebenten Nachkommastelle geehrt. Der Pi-Tag wird traditionell mit dem Verzehr von kreisförmigen Kuchen begangen (im Englischen wird der griechische Buchstabe π lautgleich wie das englische Wort pie, Kuchen, ausgesprochen). Ein solcher Kuchen von 20 Zentimeter Durchmesser hat zudem π Quadratdezimeter Grundfläche. Arg, dass am 14. März Albert Einstein geboren ist und Stephen Hawking verstorben ist. Logisch, dass nur dieser Tag der Welttag der Mathematik sein kann. Ich habe in den Statistiken heute keine Kurs- oder Umsatzbewegung an der Wiener Börse gefunden, die dem Pi Tag entspricht. Dafür ist der Podcast am "3/14"um "1:59:26 pm" publiziert worden. Mein Beitrag zum Pi Day.