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No signs of abrupt growth slowdown in CEE (Martin Ertl)

20 Nov

Martin Ertl

Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and PolandGrowth momentum in Central Europe remains strong during the third quarter, even accelerating in Poland.In Hungary and Slovakia growth momentum remains elevated with inflationary pressures building up gradually.While core inflation has moved beyond 2 % in Hungary and Slovakia it remains subdued in Poland at below 1 %.Growth has slowed down in the Czech Republic compared to strong growth in 2017. Capacity constraints are intensifying as firms face the tightest labor market in the region. During the third quarter (Q3) economic growth in Central Europe (CE) was stronger than expected in all CE economies except for the Czech Republic (CZ). Economic growth was strongest in Poland (PL) at 5.7 %, seasonally adjusted (sa), compared to Q3 2017 (y/y). Growth momentum in Po...     » Weiterlesen


 

Divergence of growth momentum continues: US, Euro-Area and CEE (Martin Ertl)

14 Nov

Martin Ertl

US Federal Reserve Bank kept monetary policy unchanged to get active again in December.Euro Area growth slowdown in Q3 might be transitory due to one-of effects of the German car industry.Strong growth is set to prolong in CEE, yet gradually approaching more sustainable levels.United States:No news from the Fed in the November statement. Wait for December for next increase of the federal funds rate.Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) has decided to keep interest rates on hold. The target range for the federal funds rate was increased to 2-2.25 % in September and is expected to be raised by another 25 basis points (to 2.25-2.5 %) in December 2018. The Fed communicates that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are consisten...     » Weiterlesen


 

Österreichs Sparquote: Wird weniger gespart oder sinken nur die Zinsen? (Martin Ertl)

05 Nov

Martin Ertl

Die Sparquote sinkt, allerdings nicht nur deswegen, weil weniger gespart wird.40 % der Finanzvermögen der Haushalte werden auf Bankeinlagen veranlagt.Der Rückgang der Sparquote hängt stark mit dem Rückgang der Sparzinsen zusammen. Private Finanzvorsorge gewinnt angesichts niedriger Zinsen und den Sorgen um die langfristige finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit des öffentlichen Pensionssystems an Bedeutung. Allerdings beobachtet man in Österreich seit 2008 einen starken Rückgang der Sparquote. Die Sparquote, welche sich als Differenz aus den verfügbaren Einkommen der privaten Haushalte und den Konsumausgaben errechnet, fiel seit ihrem Höchststand von 13,0 % in 2008 auf 6,6 % im zweiten Quartal 2018 (Grafik 1).Der Rückgang der Einkommen im Zuge der Finanzkrise in 2008 z...     » Weiterlesen


 

ECB affirms its monetary policy outlook & Buoyant U.S. growth continues (Martin Ertl)

29 Okt

Martin Ertl

The ECB Governing Council sees no need to change its monetary policy and economic outlook. Recent data have been “somewhat weaker than expected” but remain broadly in line.Core inflation is expected to pick-up in Q4 and to be supported by accelerating wage growth over the medium-term.Economic growth is expected to remain close to the current pace over the medium-term with slight downside potential in Q3. Euro Area sentiment continues its decline, though still remaining in expansionary territory.The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged at last week’s monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council. The ECB’s key monetary policy interest rate remains at 0 % and the marginal and the deposit facility interest rates are kept at 0.25 % and -0.4 %. This is well in line with the ECB&r...     » Weiterlesen


 

Economic Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe revisited (Martin Ertl)

23 Okt

Martin Ertl

CEE economies are closing the income gap to Western Europe.Convergence was strongest in the immediate pre-crisis period and has diminished since then, though, remains active at least within the EU. Convergence has been faster within the EU than in non-EU countries and particularly rapid in EU member states of the CEE region.Education and FDI are positively associated with GDP per capita growth, as is institutional quality within the EU. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is among the fastest growing world regions. In 2017, gross domestic product (GDP) in CEE, excluding Russia, expanded by 4.4 %[1]. Only Emerging Asia was growing more rapidly (6.1 %) while Developed Economies (2.4 %) and Latin America (1.1 %) experienced slower growth, as did the global economy (3.7 %). Moreover, strong growth momentum has be...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> http://uniqagroup.com/gruppe/