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Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Risks shift to the downside yet fundamentals rema...

14 Jän

Martin Ertl

The global economic outlook remains constructive, though, with deteriorating expectations.Short-term cyclical risks are titled to the downside in the Euro Area, yet, the fundamental factors underpinning the economic expansion remain in place.Following a strong economic expansion in Austria, a pleasant slowdown is underway. Solid labor market conditions keep supporting consumer sentiment and private consumption. In CEE there are no signs of an abrupt growth slowdown. Economic growth has remained surprisingly resilient. Nevertheless, growth will slow down gradually over the medium-term. The global expansion has passed its peak. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5 % in 2019 and 2020 after 3.7 % in 2018 (OECD Economic Outlook No 104 – November 2018). Projections of global GDP growth for 2019 h...     » Weiterlesen


 

Slowing growth – the dilemma of the ECB (Martin Ertl)

17 Dez

Martin Ertl

Exit from QE has been confirmed, reinvestment of accumulated stock continues to provide accommodative monetary conditions.The December macro projections include downward revisions in GDP growth and inflation. Redemptions will be reinvested past the first increase in key interest rates. New ECB capital keys requires portfolio reallocation.In the meeting of the governing council (GC) last Thursday, the ECB confirmed its exit from ultra-loose monetary policy or quantitative easing (QE). Net asset purchases under the asset purchase program (APP) will end by December. The accumulated stock of assets will, however, be reinvested, in full, for an extended period of time and past the date when the GC starts raising key interest rates. This was not unexpected as the US Federal Reserve has only started to reduce its...     » Weiterlesen


 

Equilibrium exchange rates and currency imbalances in CEE (Martin Ertl)

17 Dez

Martin Ertl

Real exchange rates in CEE have appreciated strongly in the pre-crisis period, though, have mainly stagnated since then.Currency undervaluation has been used as an unconventional monetary policy measure in the Czech Republic. An estimate of the equilibrium real exchange rate shows that undervaluation was around 4 %.Any currency misalignments have been closed and the current economic outlook points towards a real appreciation until 2020.Exchange rates have caught considerable attention in 2018, both in emerging markets as well as advanced economies. The Euro (EUR) has depreciated to the US Dollar (USD) by about 5 % since the beginning of the year (5.2 %, YTD). More volatility occurred in emerging markets led by a fall in the Argentine Peso (-51 % to the USD, -48 % to the EUR) and the Turkish Lira (-29 % to ...     » Weiterlesen


 

Der Rückzug der Babyboomer und das lange Erwerbsleben der Nachgeborenen (Martin Ertl)

10 Dez

Martin Ertl

In den aktuellen Bevölkerungsprognosen der Statistik Austria steigt die Altersabhängigkeit in den nächsten Jahren stark.Frauen sollen ihr Erwerbsverhalten an jenes der Männer angleichen. Bei der Erwerbsbeteiligung soll sich Österreich in Zukunft an die Fersen eines internationalen Musterschülers heften.Die neuen Ergebnisse der Bevölkerungsprognose 2018 der Statistik Austria zeigen in der Hauptvariante eine nur gering unterschiedliche Entwicklung gegenüber den letztjährigen Prognosen. Wie die Statistik Austria anmerkt, wächst Österreichs Bevölkerung und altert, was sich durch eine anhaltende Zuwanderung, stagnierende Geburtenzahlen und eine weiterhin steigende Lebenserwartung ergibt. Die geburtenstarken Babyboom-Jahrgänge kommen in das Pension...     » Weiterlesen


 

No signs of abrupt growth slowdown in CEE (Martin Ertl)

20 Nov

Martin Ertl

Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and PolandGrowth momentum in Central Europe remains strong during the third quarter, even accelerating in Poland.In Hungary and Slovakia growth momentum remains elevated with inflationary pressures building up gradually.While core inflation has moved beyond 2 % in Hungary and Slovakia it remains subdued in Poland at below 1 %.Growth has slowed down in the Czech Republic compared to strong growth in 2017. Capacity constraints are intensifying as firms face the tightest labor market in the region. During the third quarter (Q3) economic growth in Central Europe (CE) was stronger than expected in all CE economies except for the Czech Republic (CZ). Economic growth was strongest in Poland (PL) at 5.7 %, seasonally adjusted (sa), compared to Q3 2017 (y/y). Growth momentum in Po...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> http://uniqagroup.com/gruppe/