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The divergence of two central banks: Fed and ECB outline paths of monetary policy ...

18 Jun

Martin Ertl

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) increases key interest rates and signals a faster rate hiking cycle.The European Central Bank (ECB) adjusts its forward guidance on interest rates expecting rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019.The ECB’s net asset purchases (QE) will end this year after a reduction of net asset purchases to 15 billion EUR per month from October onwards.The Euro Area continues to show lower potential growth and an unemployment rate still above the natural rate of unemployment.Last week was dominated by long-awaited central bank decisions on monetary policy normalization. The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) met on June 12-13 to discuss the stance of monetary policy consistent with recent positive ...     » Weiterlesen


Eurozone growth and ECB preview (Martin Ertl)

12 Jun

Martin Ertl

Eurozone growth slowdown in early 2018 is driven by declining export growth.Growth remains strong in Spain and Austria while decelerating in Germany, France and Italy.Higher energy prices cause a spike in Eurozone inflation at 1.9 % in May.ECB’s Praet gave a lecture on interest rates and some signals about the upcoming ECB meeting for the attentive reader.Economic growth in the Eurozone decelerated in Q1 2018. Last week’s release of the final GDP figures by Eurostat shows seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter (sa, q/q) real GDP growth of 0.4 % in the first quarter of 2018 after five consecutive quarters of 0.7 % quarter-on-quarter growth. Compared to the first quarter of 2017 (year-on-year), the Eurozone economy expanded by 2.5 % (y/y). Thus, economic growth in the Eurozone is lagging the Unit...     » Weiterlesen


Italy: Public debt sustainability (Martin Ertl)

05 Jun

Martin Ertl

Italy’s debt sustains a large interest rate shock as long as the budget is kept under control.Debt sustainability depends on fiscal discipline and continued primary fiscal surpluses.Public debt is predominantly held by residents; primarily by financial institutions and the central bank.In 2017, Italy’s government debt reached 131.5 % of GDP which is one of the highest values in the Euro Area. We perform a debt sustainability analysis (DSA), that is, simplified though insightful, based on the formula[pic5,left,200]where Dtis the debt to GDP ratio, rtis the average annual nominal interest rate paid on government debt, gtis the nominal GDP growth rate and PBtis the primary general government balance in year t [1]. If we assume for a moment that the primary budget (fiscal revenue minus expenditure)...     » Weiterlesen


The next Euro crisis won’t be a balance of payments crisis (Martin Ertl)

28 Mai

Martin Ertl

In Germany, GDP growth slowed in line with the total of the Euro Area in Q1 2018.The next Euro crisis won’t be a balance of payments crisis. In Germany, real quarterly GDP growth slowed to 0.3 % in Q1 2018 from 0.6 % previously. In annual terms, GDP expanded by 2.3 % after 2.9 % in Q4 2017. Positive contributions came from domestic demand. In particular, gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose 1.2 % and gross fixed capital formation in construction was up by as much as 2.1 % (q/q, seasonally and weekday adjusted). Also, household final consumption expenditure increased slightly (+0.4 %). Government final consumption expenditure had a downward effect on GDP growth. The development of foreign trade was less dynamic. Total exports of goods and services were down 1.0 % compared with...     » Weiterlesen


Österreichs Bevölkerung: Stand und Prognosen (Martin Ertl)

22 Mai

Martin Ertl

Der Bevölkerungszuwachs war im letzten Jahr geringer als zuvor infolge einer geringeren Zuwanderung. Wiens Bevölkerung wächst am stärksten.Migration, Alterung und die steigende Lebenserwartung beeinflussen die Demografie.Demografen betrachten die Entwicklung des Bildungsniveaus als zusätzliche „qualitative“ Dimension.Am 1. Januar 2018 lebten laut aktuell veröffentlichten Ergebnissen der Statistik Austria 8.822.267 Menschen in Österreich, um 49.402 Personen (+0,56 %) mehr als zu Jahresbeginn 2017. Die Bevölkerungszunahme war 2017 deutlich niedriger als im Jahr zuvor (2016: +72.394 Personen bzw. +0,83 %). Rund 90 % des gesamten Bevölkerungsanstiegs war auf die Netto-Zuwanderung aus dem Ausland in Höhe von 44.630Personen zurückzuführen. A...     » Weiterlesen

Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

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