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Divergence of growth momentum continues: US, Euro-Area and CEE (Martin Ertl)

14 Nov

Martin Ertl

US Federal Reserve Bank kept monetary policy unchanged to get active again in December.Euro Area growth slowdown in Q3 might be transitory due to one-of effects of the German car industry.Strong growth is set to prolong in CEE, yet gradually approaching more sustainable levels.United States:No news from the Fed in the November statement. Wait for December for next increase of the federal funds rate.Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) has decided to keep interest rates on hold. The target range for the federal funds rate was increased to 2-2.25 % in September and is expected to be raised by another 25 basis points (to 2.25-2.5 %) in December 2018. The Fed communicates that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are consisten...     » Weiterlesen


 

Österreichs Sparquote: Wird weniger gespart oder sinken nur die Zinsen? (Martin Ertl)

05 Nov

Martin Ertl

Die Sparquote sinkt, allerdings nicht nur deswegen, weil weniger gespart wird.40 % der Finanzvermögen der Haushalte werden auf Bankeinlagen veranlagt.Der Rückgang der Sparquote hängt stark mit dem Rückgang der Sparzinsen zusammen. Private Finanzvorsorge gewinnt angesichts niedriger Zinsen und den Sorgen um die langfristige finanzielle Nachhaltigkeit des öffentlichen Pensionssystems an Bedeutung. Allerdings beobachtet man in Österreich seit 2008 einen starken Rückgang der Sparquote. Die Sparquote, welche sich als Differenz aus den verfügbaren Einkommen der privaten Haushalte und den Konsumausgaben errechnet, fiel seit ihrem Höchststand von 13,0 % in 2008 auf 6,6 % im zweiten Quartal 2018 (Grafik 1).Der Rückgang der Einkommen im Zuge der Finanzkrise in 2008 z...     » Weiterlesen


 

ECB affirms its monetary policy outlook & Buoyant U.S. growth continues (Martin Ertl)

29 Okt

Martin Ertl

The ECB Governing Council sees no need to change its monetary policy and economic outlook. Recent data have been “somewhat weaker than expected” but remain broadly in line.Core inflation is expected to pick-up in Q4 and to be supported by accelerating wage growth over the medium-term.Economic growth is expected to remain close to the current pace over the medium-term with slight downside potential in Q3. Euro Area sentiment continues its decline, though still remaining in expansionary territory.The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged at last week’s monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council. The ECB’s key monetary policy interest rate remains at 0 % and the marginal and the deposit facility interest rates are kept at 0.25 % and -0.4 %. This is well in line with the ECB&r...     » Weiterlesen


 

Economic Convergence in Central and Eastern Europe revisited (Martin Ertl)

23 Okt

Martin Ertl

CEE economies are closing the income gap to Western Europe.Convergence was strongest in the immediate pre-crisis period and has diminished since then, though, remains active at least within the EU. Convergence has been faster within the EU than in non-EU countries and particularly rapid in EU member states of the CEE region.Education and FDI are positively associated with GDP per capita growth, as is institutional quality within the EU. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is among the fastest growing world regions. In 2017, gross domestic product (GDP) in CEE, excluding Russia, expanded by 4.4 %[1]. Only Emerging Asia was growing more rapidly (6.1 %) while Developed Economies (2.4 %) and Latin America (1.1 %) experienced slower growth, as did the global economy (3.7 %). Moreover, strong growth momentum has be...     » Weiterlesen


 

Italy’s public debt sustainability 2.0: the effects of a new fiscal outlook (Marti...

19 Okt

Martin Ertl

Italy has among the highest public debt levels within the EU, only topped by Greece.Yet, the ruling coalition plans to raise the fiscal deficit, questioning public debt sustainability.The new fiscal outlook leads to a substantial deviation from the previous trajectory of public debt normalization, yet is not as excessive to make public debt unsustainable.Public debt to GDP will decrease only very gradually over the medium-term which does not comply with EU regulations and, if not adjusted, may results in an excessive deficit procedure.The Italian ruling coalition, between the League and the Five Star Movement, announced its medium-term budget plan. The general government deficit was set at 2.4 % of GDP for the year 2019. This is significantly above the previous government’s deficit plan at 0.8 %, lea...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> http://uniqagroup.com/gruppe/