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Russia: Low growth and lower interest rates (Martin Ertl)

21 Jun

Martin Ertl

After a growth bounce in Q4 2018, GDP growth returned to more moderate level in 2019.Weak growth and declining inflation pave way for the central bank to accommodate monetary policy. Economic growth slowed during the first quarter after a temporary spike in Q4 2018. In Q1 2019 real gross domestic product (GDP) increased moderately by 0.5 % compared to Q1 2018 and following 2.7 % GDP growth during the end-quarter 2018 (Figure 1). In seasonally adjusted terms, we calculate a drop by 0.4 % of GDP compared to the previous quarter. There were no expenditure details released yet by the Russian statistics office (Rosstat). By year-end 2018, national accounts data showed a surprising pick-up compared to previous quarters [1]. A reason which we detected for volatile growth data is construction activity (Figure 2). ...     » Weiterlesen


 

German business cycle strengthens despite weak sentiment (Martin Ertl)

28 Mai

Martin Ertl

Q1 GDP growth at 0.4 % (q/q) was driven by household consumption and investment activity.Strong service sector performance compensated for a continued decline in manufacturing.Sentiment indicators support the divergence between manufacturing and service sectors despite indications of weaker service sentiment. The German business cycle has still some steam left. After stagnating during the second half of 2018, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) bounced back to 0.4 % in Q1 2019 (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally and calendar day adjusted). This translates into 0.7 % GDP growth when compared to Q1 2018 (year-on-year). Thus, the German economy has regained some of its momentum growing at a pace which is similar to the first two quarters of the previous year (Q1-Q2 2018: 0.4 % q/q growth). Domestic demand has ...     » Weiterlesen


 

Unconditional insurance convergence in CEE (Martin Ertl)

24 Mai

Martin Ertl

The Czech economy is the first to reach current German income per capita in 2046, while Ukraine would be the last to reach today’s German living standards in 2077.Insurance markets grow with income by more than 1:1 during transition. Thus, continued convergence in income levels is set to foster convergence in insurance penetration.Countries with lower income per capita have higher growth prospects and a catch-up with richer countries implies a higher growth rate of insurance premiums. Important determinants of insurance development include income, wealth, the price of insurance, anticipated inflation, real interest rates, the role of the stock market, unemployment, demographic factors, risk aversion, the educational level, religion and culture, financial development, market structure, social security...     » Weiterlesen


 

Economic resilience endures in CEE (Martin Ertl)

20 Mai

Martin Ertl

While the global and Euro Area business cycles slow, the economic expansion remains surprisingly strong in CEE.The region shows a high degree of economic integration with the Euro Area, yet strong domestic demand more than compensates for the weakening external conditions.Improvements in labor markets have been broad based and rising wages support household consumption as, so far, inflation remains rather muted. The region’s strong growth performance drives economic convergence. For it to persist, digital capacities will be essential to close the gap to an evolving technological frontier. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) maintains a solid expansion albeit a weakening external macroeconomic environment. The expansion of the global economy has slowed to 3.6 % in 2018 after 3.8 % in 2017 and the growth ...     » Weiterlesen


 

Österreichs Wirtschaft setzt die Expansion mit einem geringeren Tempo fort.  (Mart...

07 Mai

Martin Ertl

Auf eine Abkühlung des Wirtschaftswachstums folgt eine Stabilisierung.Die Industrie und insbesondere der Bausektor expandieren seit Beginn des Jahres.Die positive Entwicklung am Arbeitsmarkt verflacht sich, aber Jobs am Bau boomten zu Jahresbeginn. Im ersten Quartal 2019 stieg das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) gemäß saison- und werktags-bereinigter Eurostat-Berechnung um 0,3 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Die vom Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (WIFO) veröffentlichte Trend-Konjun-Kturkomponente, eine geglättete Berechnung, zeigte ebenfalls einen Zuwachs von 0,3 % (Q/Q) an. Der von uns berechnete, wöchentliche Echtzeit-BIP Indikator (Nowcast) zeigte zuletzt für die Eurostat-Berechnung keine Veränderung des Q1 BIP und für die WIFO-Berechnung einen Anstieg von...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> http://uniqagroup.com/gruppe/