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CEE macro and interest rates: A tale of three countries (Martin Ertl)

14 Mai

Martin Ertl

In Romania the National Bank has continued its rate hiking cycle to bring accelerated inflation under control.In the Czech Republic a koruna appreciation weighs on inflation which motivated the Czech National Bank to put its rate hiking cycle on pause.Q1 Growth accelerated in Serbia. While inflation lingers around historic lows, the central bank left the key policy rate unchanged at an all-time low.RomaniaThe cyclical upswing has been very strong in Romania with economic growth at 6.8 % in 2017. GDP growth was primarily driven by domestic demand and particularly household consumption expenditure which has expanded by 9.9 % in 2017. The unemployment rate has decreased to its lowest level in March (4.5 %, sa, Eurostat) while the unmet labor demand has not yet accelerated further, as indicated by a constant j...     » Weiterlesen


 

Have we seen the peak of the business cycle? (Martin Ertl)

07 Mai

Martin Ertl

GDP growth slowed down both in the United States (0.6 %, q/q, sa) and the Eurozone (0.4 %).Sentiment indicators remain elevated in spite of recent declines.US unemployment rate has decreased further (3.9 %) while hourly earnings growth has remained constant (2.6 %).Inflationary pressure is emerging in the United States but remains moderate in the Euro Area.Monetary policy continues to be accommodative, particularly in the Euro Area. The United States and the Eurozone have lost some growth momentum in early 2018, as recently released GDP figures have revealed. GDP growth in the United States was 2.3 % (q/q, annualized) in Q1 2018 after 2.9 % in Q4 2017 and 2.6 % for the whole year of 2017. The Eurozone expanded by 0.4 % (q/q, sa), or 2.5 % (y/y, sa), in Q1 2018 after three consecutive quarters at 0.7 % quar...     » Weiterlesen


 

Das Finanzverhalten der österreichischen Haushalte (Martin Ertl)

30 Apr

Martin Ertl

Die Präferenz für das Sparen am Bankkonto bleibt trotz Nullzinsen groß.Im europäischen Vergleich haben vor allem Österreichs ältere Bevölkerungsgruppen eine geringe Präferenz für Vorsorge mit Aktien.Das Anlageverhalten der Jungen könnte mittelfristig einiges in Bewegung bringen.Einerseits tragen die Haushalte durch Konsum und Investitionen wesentlich zur Wirtschaftsleistung Österreichs bei, andererseits sind sie durch ihre Nettogeldvermögensbildung der wichtigste Bereitsteller von Finanzvermögen und stellen den anderen volkswirtschaftlichen Sektoren, insbesondere Banken, Investmentfonds und Versicherungen, aber auch den Unternehmen, Mittel zur Verfügung. Mit Jahresende 2017 betrug das Finanzvermögen der Haushalte 646,3 Mrd. EUR, ...     » Weiterlesen


 

The Euro Area labor market in US perspective (Martin Ertl)

25 Apr

Martin Ertl

The unemployment rate in the Euro Area (8.5 %) is twice as high as in the United States (4.1 %).Labor markets in Spain and Italy continue to contribute substantially to Euro Area aggregate unemployment.Euro Area labor force participation rates are rising, while the US participation rate has declined moderately.Euro Area old age participation rates are on the rise but still below US levels. Labor markets have become substantially tighter with unemployment rates below, or close to, their pre-crisis lows. In March, the saisonally adjusted (sa) unemployment rate was at 4.1 % in the United States, covering persons aged between 16 and 74 years. The Euro Area, however, shows a considerably higher unemplyoment rate at 8.5 % (sa, February) for the same age group. Figure 1 shows that the unemployment rate has been h...     » Weiterlesen


 

Russia: How resilient is the economy to financial sanctions? (Martin Ertl)

16 Apr

Martin Ertl

While the recovery has been weak, we have been arguing that Russia gained in macroeconomic stability in recent years.Financial shock-absorbing factors include low inflation and the transition to a new monetary policy framework, rebuilt FX reserves, a prudent fiscal rule and a consumption-driven recovery. In a surprise action, on Friday 6th April, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Rusal, a Russian corporate issuing foreign currency denominated bonds, as a specially designated national (SDN). US persons holding debt and equity in the company must sell its holdings until 7th May 2018. How resilient is the macroeconomy to financial shocks such as the tightening in foreign currency financing conditions? Higher firm borrowing cost lower investment and employment. Currency depreciation ind...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> http://uniqagroup.com/gruppe/