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Is the Euro Area hitting capacity constraints? (Martin Ertl)

16 Jul

Martin Ertl

Euro Area GDP growth slowdown is likely to extend into the second quarter, despite a rebound of industrial production in May.Capacity utilization has reached levels well above the long-term average and close to 2007.Insufficient demand and labor shortages are the most significant factors limiting production.Investment activity in the Euro Area has, not yet, reached pre-crisis levels.Labor productivity growth has been remarkably similar between the pre- and post-crisis period, though, at markedly lower employment growth.Euro Area economic growth slowed down during the first quarter of the year and business cycle indicators, like industrial production, retail sales or sentiment indicators, have, so far, signaled an extension of muted growth into the second quarter. Quarter-on-quarter (q/q) real GDP growth wa...     » Weiterlesen


 

Faktencheck: Migration und Arbeitsmarkt (Martin Ertl)

09 Jul

Martin Ertl

Sozioökonomische Eigenschaften von Migranten werden in der Öffentlichkeit verzerrt wahrgenommen.Deutlich über 60 % der Netto-Zuwanderung nach Österreich stammt aus der Europäischen Union, mit zunehmender Bedeutung Osteuropas.Die Mehrheit der nach Österreich kommenden Migranten hat eine gute Aussicht auf eine erfolgreiche Arbeitsmarktintegration.Dennoch existieren deutliche Lohnunterschiede. Staatsangehörige aus den neuen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten verdienen im Schnitt um rund ein Drittel weniger als Österreicher.In der Bevölkerung ist die Wahrnehmung über die Anzahl und sozioökonomischen Eigenschaften von Migranten oft stark verzerrt. Viele überschätzen die Höhe der Zuwanderung stark. Zum Beispiel liegt der Anteil von Migranten in Italien bei 1...     » Weiterlesen


 

ECB Forum on Central Banking: Price and wage-setting in advanced economies (Martin...

25 Jun

Martin Ertl

Presentations and discussions hoover around the “Phillips curve”, the pivotal concept justifying the existence of central banks.Draghi stresses that wages are finally rising and the Phillips curve is strengthening.The Phillips curve is “alive and well but needs to be found” as measurement errors have likely overshadowed inflation signals. Nowadays, Phillips curves contain inflation expectations which should be influenced more directly in breaking the “veil of inattention”.The ECB Forum on Central Banking is a big, high-profile get-together of economic researchers and central banker from around the world. Last week in Sintra, Portugal, the main topic was price and wage-setting in advanced economies.In the opening remarks, ECB President Draghi commented on the economic out...     » Weiterlesen


 

The divergence of two central banks: Fed and ECB outline paths of monetary policy ...

18 Jun

Martin Ertl

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) increases key interest rates and signals a faster rate hiking cycle.The European Central Bank (ECB) adjusts its forward guidance on interest rates expecting rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019.The ECB’s net asset purchases (QE) will end this year after a reduction of net asset purchases to 15 billion EUR per month from October onwards.The Euro Area continues to show lower potential growth and an unemployment rate still above the natural rate of unemployment.Last week was dominated by long-awaited central bank decisions on monetary policy normalization. The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) met on June 12-13 to discuss the stance of monetary policy consistent with recent positive ...     » Weiterlesen


 

Eurozone growth and ECB preview (Martin Ertl)

12 Jun

Martin Ertl

Eurozone growth slowdown in early 2018 is driven by declining export growth.Growth remains strong in Spain and Austria while decelerating in Germany, France and Italy.Higher energy prices cause a spike in Eurozone inflation at 1.9 % in May.ECB’s Praet gave a lecture on interest rates and some signals about the upcoming ECB meeting for the attentive reader.Economic growth in the Eurozone decelerated in Q1 2018. Last week’s release of the final GDP figures by Eurostat shows seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter (sa, q/q) real GDP growth of 0.4 % in the first quarter of 2018 after five consecutive quarters of 0.7 % quarter-on-quarter growth. Compared to the first quarter of 2017 (year-on-year), the Eurozone economy expanded by 2.5 % (y/y). Thus, economic growth in the Eurozone is lagging the Unit...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> http://uniqagroup.com/gruppe/