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Italy: Public debt sustainability (Martin Ertl)

05 Jun

Martin Ertl

Italy’s debt sustains a large interest rate shock as long as the budget is kept under control.Debt sustainability depends on fiscal discipline and continued primary fiscal surpluses.Public debt is predominantly held by residents; primarily by financial institutions and the central bank.In 2017, Italy’s government debt reached 131.5 % of GDP which is one of the highest values in the Euro Area. We perform a debt sustainability analysis (DSA), that is, simplified though insightful, based on the formula[pic5,left,200]where Dtis the debt to GDP ratio, rtis the average annual nominal interest rate paid on government debt, gtis the nominal GDP growth rate and PBtis the primary general government balance in year t [1]. If we assume for a moment that the primary budget (fiscal revenue minus expenditure)...     » Weiterlesen


 

The next Euro crisis won’t be a balance of payments crisis (Martin Ertl)

28 Mai

Martin Ertl

In Germany, GDP growth slowed in line with the total of the Euro Area in Q1 2018.The next Euro crisis won’t be a balance of payments crisis. In Germany, real quarterly GDP growth slowed to 0.3 % in Q1 2018 from 0.6 % previously. In annual terms, GDP expanded by 2.3 % after 2.9 % in Q4 2017. Positive contributions came from domestic demand. In particular, gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose 1.2 % and gross fixed capital formation in construction was up by as much as 2.1 % (q/q, seasonally and weekday adjusted). Also, household final consumption expenditure increased slightly (+0.4 %). Government final consumption expenditure had a downward effect on GDP growth. The development of foreign trade was less dynamic. Total exports of goods and services were down 1.0 % compared with...     » Weiterlesen


 

Österreichs Bevölkerung: Stand und Prognosen (Martin Ertl)

22 Mai

Martin Ertl

Der Bevölkerungszuwachs war im letzten Jahr geringer als zuvor infolge einer geringeren Zuwanderung. Wiens Bevölkerung wächst am stärksten.Migration, Alterung und die steigende Lebenserwartung beeinflussen die Demografie.Demografen betrachten die Entwicklung des Bildungsniveaus als zusätzliche „qualitative“ Dimension.Am 1. Januar 2018 lebten laut aktuell veröffentlichten Ergebnissen der Statistik Austria 8.822.267 Menschen in Österreich, um 49.402 Personen (+0,56 %) mehr als zu Jahresbeginn 2017. Die Bevölkerungszunahme war 2017 deutlich niedriger als im Jahr zuvor (2016: +72.394 Personen bzw. +0,83 %). Rund 90 % des gesamten Bevölkerungsanstiegs war auf die Netto-Zuwanderung aus dem Ausland in Höhe von 44.630Personen zurückzuführen. A...     » Weiterlesen


 

CEE macro and interest rates: A tale of three countries (Martin Ertl)

14 Mai

Martin Ertl

In Romania the National Bank has continued its rate hiking cycle to bring accelerated inflation under control.In the Czech Republic a koruna appreciation weighs on inflation which motivated the Czech National Bank to put its rate hiking cycle on pause.Q1 Growth accelerated in Serbia. While inflation lingers around historic lows, the central bank left the key policy rate unchanged at an all-time low.RomaniaThe cyclical upswing has been very strong in Romania with economic growth at 6.8 % in 2017. GDP growth was primarily driven by domestic demand and particularly household consumption expenditure which has expanded by 9.9 % in 2017. The unemployment rate has decreased to its lowest level in March (4.5 %, sa, Eurostat) while the unmet labor demand has not yet accelerated further, as indicated by a constant j...     » Weiterlesen


 

Have we seen the peak of the business cycle? (Martin Ertl)

07 Mai

Martin Ertl

GDP growth slowed down both in the United States (0.6 %, q/q, sa) and the Eurozone (0.4 %).Sentiment indicators remain elevated in spite of recent declines.US unemployment rate has decreased further (3.9 %) while hourly earnings growth has remained constant (2.6 %).Inflationary pressure is emerging in the United States but remains moderate in the Euro Area.Monetary policy continues to be accommodative, particularly in the Euro Area. The United States and the Eurozone have lost some growth momentum in early 2018, as recently released GDP figures have revealed. GDP growth in the United States was 2.3 % (q/q, annualized) in Q1 2018 after 2.9 % in Q4 2017 and 2.6 % for the whole year of 2017. The Eurozone expanded by 0.4 % (q/q, sa), or 2.5 % (y/y, sa), in Q1 2018 after three consecutive quarters at 0.7 % quar...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

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