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Global economy in full swing, Eurozone - the years of discontent come to an end (M...

16 Jän

Martin Ertl

Global economy in full swingPresident Trump kept a promise pushing a tax reform through the Congress. Its impact on the US economy remains a source of uncertainty. The global economy is in good shape with both developed and emerging markets growing solidly (Figure 1). In Europe, a hard Brexit is seen as less likely after negotiations have moved on to phase two. Japan has revised its GDP growth upwards (1.3 % in 2018) and a sharp slowdown of China’s growth (2018: 6.5 %) became less likely with stronger than expected export growth.The US economy is expanding at an accelerated pace. GDP growth in Q3 increased to 3.3 % (q/q, annualized) after 3.1 % in Q2, in spite of storm related disturbances. Positive fiscal impulses can support growth in 2018. The Federal Reserve Board has recently raised the GDP proj...     » Weiterlesen


 

Romania: Second CEE central bank to raise key policy interest rates (Martin Ertl)

16 Jän

Martin Ertl

The National Bank of Romania increased its key policy rate by 25 bp to 2 %.We expect inflation to have reached 3 % in Q4 2017 (3.2 % in November); 0.3 %-points above the latest NBR’s projection (November).Double digit growth of wages and unit labor costs in Q3 2017 have already indicated domestic price pressure to emerge.The 3-months interbank interest rate (ROBOR) has picked up significantly since September.At its board meeting on the 8th of January, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) decided to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 2 %. This is the second central bank in the CEE region, after the Czech Republic, to raise its key policy rate. The inflation-targeting central bank reacted to accelerating price pressure. In November, inflation was at 3.2 % (y/y), after 2.6 % in October a...     » Weiterlesen


 

Österreichs Abgabenlast im internationalen Vergleich (Martin Ertl)

08 Jän

Martin Ertl

Österreichs Abgabenlast im internationalen VergleichÖsterreichs Abgabenquote liegt mit 42,9 % des BIP (2016) im oberen europäischen Mittelfeld.Steuern auf Arbeitseinkommen und Sozialversicherungsbeiträge liegen deutlich über dem EU Schnitt. Kapital, insbesondere Vermögensbestände, sind vergleichsweise niedrig besteuert.Niedrige Abgaben auf Unternehmensgewinne fördern Investitionstätigkeit und steigern Produktivitätswachstum. Wie hoch ist die Abgabenlast in Österreich? Wie hat sich diese entwickelt und wo steht Österreich im internationalen Vergleich? Die Abgabenquote aus Steuern und verpflichtenden Sozialbeiträgen in Prozent des Bruttoinlandprodukt lag in Österreich im Jahr 2016 bei 42,9 % (Statistik Austria, Indikator 4 [1]). Im Verglei...     » Weiterlesen


 

Central banks’s forecast adjustments (Martin Ertl)

18 Dez

Martin Ertl

USAFed FOMC increases the federal fund rate for the third time this yearFederal fund rate target range at 1.25-1.5 %December economic projections show stronger labor market and higher GDP growth In line with market expectations, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to increase the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 1.25-1.5 % from previously 1-1.25 %. This is the third rate hike this year after a 25 bp increase in March as well as June. The FOMC expects “economic conditions to evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate”. The statement also emphasises that the key policy rate is likely to remain below its longer run level “for some time”.According to the December economic projections of the Federal R...     » Weiterlesen


 

CEE: Poland (Martin Ertl)

11 Dez

Martin Ertl

The National Bank of Poland has kept its monetary policy rate unchanged at 1.5 %.The minutes of the November meeting show a lively discourse within the Monetary Policy Council.Headline inflation has reached the 2.5 % inflation target but core inflation remains low.Wage pressure on inflation remains limited, so far, as unit labor costs remain stable.Strong growth in construction activity points towards a recovery in investment.Two weeks after our analysis of the introduction of new unconventional monetary policy instruments in Hungary, we take a look at the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The NBP shows the most stable interest rate outlook among the Central European central banks, with its governor Glapinski signaling no rate hike until the end of 2018. At its two-day Monetary Policy Meeting, last Monday/Tue...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

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