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The heterogeneous development of CEE labor markets (Martin Ertl)

30 Apr

Martin Ertl

CEE labor markets have improved considerably recently, yet substantial variety persists.Labor markets in Central Europe have reached full employment while those at the Western Balkans are characterized by high structural unemployment, particularly for the youth.Gender gaps with respect to employment in the formal sector are substantial across the region.The trend of ageing populations is currently amplified by emigration, which might soften in some countries if wage growth can be sustained.The Central and Eastern European (CEE) region has managed to withstand the global economic slowdown of 2018. In many CEE economies economic growth has even gained further momentum. The resilience of the region can be explained by strong domestic demand driving GDP growth. In particular household consumption has developed...     » Weiterlesen


 

Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Imponderability (Martin Ertl)

15 Apr

Martin Ertl

Eurozone: Down to potential growth or lowerCentral and Eastern Europe: Resilient though not immuneFinancial Markets: Monetary policy normalization is coming to an end.The global economy is expected to keep expanding in 2019/20 although at a slower pace than previously. Global output is forecast to grow by 3.3-3.5 % and 3.6 % in 2019 and 2020 after 3.6-3.7 % in 2018 (OECD, IMF). Hence, growth expectations neither imply a dramatic slowdown nor the onset of a global recession. Both developed and emerging economies exhibit a business cycle slowdown as well as all major regions around the globe; except for Latin America (Figure 1).However, a lot of imponderability surrounds the current economic outlook including the evolution of the Brexit and the trade war. We do not know how and even if the UK will leave the ...     » Weiterlesen


 

Gesundheitsausgaben im demografischen Licht (Martin Ertl)

08 Apr

Martin Ertl

Die demografische Alterung führt zu einem langfristigen Anstieg der österreichischen Gesundheitskosten.Der isolierte Alterungseffekt erhöht die Gesundheitskosten (in % des BIP) bis 2060 um 3 %-Punkte auf 13,4 %.Sinken die Gesundheitsausgaben proportional zur steigenden Lebenserwartung fällt der Anstieg geringer aus (+2 %-Punkte).Unsicherheit bezüglich der Entwicklung der Nachfrage nach Gesundheitsgütern könnte die Ausgaben jedoch weiter erhöhen.Bislang werden 74 % der laufenden Gesundheitsausgaben aus öffentlicher Hand finanziert. 5 % entfallen auf private Krankenversicherer. 19 % werden out-of-pocketdurch Selbstzahlungen der Haushalte beglichen.Bleiben die öffentlichen Budgetmittel für den Gesundheitssektor, relativ zu anderen Budgetbereichen, unver&a...     » Weiterlesen


 

CEE Central Bank Update (Martin Ertl)

02 Apr

Martin Ertl

Russia: more clarity on growth, inflation & yieldsHungary: tighter monetary policy with a cautious note***Russia: more clarity on growth, inflation & yieldsThe Russian central bank sees inflation lower than previously expected and anticipates the possibility to cut the key interest rate in 2019.The economy is set to grow around its potential growth rate. Public investment will increasingly contribute to growth. On 22nd March, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 7.75 %. In February, the consumer price inflation (Figure 1) was 5.2 % (after 5 % in January). An increase in inflation was expected due to the VAT rate hike, however, it was lower so far than expected by the CBR. Households’ and businesses’ inflation expectations moderated since t...     » Weiterlesen


 

US Fed confirms wait-and-see approach (Martin Ertl)

25 Mär

Martin Ertl

US Fed refrains from raising interest rates in 2019 due to slowing business cycle momentum.Balance sheet normalization ends in September and the pace of normalization is slowing from May onwards.Last week the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US central bank (Fed) has confirmed a more cautious approach towards monetary policy in 2019. New economic projections of FOMC members, which are released at a quarterly frequency, do not indicate any further changes in the federal funds rate in 2019. After four interest rate increases in 2018, the upper bound of the federal funds target rate stands at 2.5 %. With signs of the US economic expansion losing steam and the level of the federal funds rate within estimates of its longer-run neutral level, the Fed sees no need to further tighten monetary policy. At...     » Weiterlesen


Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> http://uniqagroup.com/gruppe/