christian drastil

29 Jan

Martin Ertl

+ 8 weitere Bilder

CEE Phillips Curves: dead or alive? Output gaps indicate very clearly that the business cycle has accelerated. Beveridge curves indicate tight labor markets in the Czech Republic (CZ) and Hungary (HU). Unit Labor Cost growth present clear evidence of wage pressure in Romania (RO), Hungary (HU) and the Czech Republic (CZ) but not in Poland (PL) or the Euro Area (EA). This is accompanied by average core inflation being more than double as high in CZ, HU and RO compared to the average rate in PL and EA. Estimating CEE Phillips Curves show that the output gap effect is well and active. Though, time-varying estimates indicate a recent weakening. 2018 is projected to be a favorable year for the economies of the CEE region. The business cycle has already accelerated in 2017 with the fastest ...     » Weiterlesen

22 Jan

Martin Ertl

+ 4 weitere Bilder

CEE: Russia Threat of further US sanctions downplayed by market participants While the recovery has been weak, several factors support macroeconomic stability. In August 2017, US President Trump signed the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” that instructed the US Treasury department to prepare reports for submission to congress. With respect to sanctions against the Russian Federation, the treasury was asked to report on potential effects of expanding sanctions to include sovereign debt. Furthermore, the report is on sanctions against “parastatal entities” and “senior political figures and oligarchs”. The report from the Treasury department is expected by February to be published and submitted to congressional committees. Based on...     » Weiterlesen

16 Jan

Martin Ertl

+ 6 weitere Bilder

Global economy in full swing President Trump kept a promise pushing a tax reform through the Congress. Its impact on the US economy remains a source of uncertainty. The global economy is in good shape with both developed and emerging markets growing solidly (Figure 1). In Europe, a hard Brexit is seen as less likely after negotiations have moved on to phase two. Japan has revised its GDP growth upwards (1.3 % in 2018) and a sharp slowdown of China’s growth (2018: 6.5 %) became less likely with stronger than expected export growth. The US economy is expanding at an accelerated pace. GDP growth in Q3 increased to 3.3 % (q q, annualized) after 3.1 % in Q2, in spite of storm related disturbances. Positive fiscal impulses can support growth in 2018. The Federal Reserve Board has recently ra...     » Weiterlesen

16 Jan

Martin Ertl

+ 3 weitere Bilder

The National Bank of Romania increased its key policy rate by 25 bp to 2 %. We expect inflation to have reached 3 % in Q4 2017 (3.2 % in November); 0.3 %-points above the latest NBR’s projection (November). Double digit growth of wages and unit labor costs in Q3 2017 have already indicated domestic price pressure to emerge. The 3-months interbank interest rate (ROBOR) has picked up significantly since September. At its board meeting on the 8 th of January, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) decided to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 2 %. This is the second central bank in the CEE region, after the Czech Republic, to raise its key policy rate. The inflation-targeting central bank reacted to accelerating price pressure. In November, inflation was at 3.2 % (y y), aft...     » Weiterlesen

08 Jan

Martin Ertl

+ 2 weitere Bilder

Österreichs Abgabenlast im internationalen Vergleich Österreichs Abgabenquote liegt mit 42,9 % des BIP (2016) im oberen europäischen Mittelfeld. Steuern auf Arbeitseinkommen und Sozialversicherungsbeiträge liegen deutlich über dem EU Schnitt. Kapital, insbesondere Vermögensbestände, sind vergleichsweise niedrig besteuert. Niedrige Abgaben auf Unternehmensgewinne fördern Investitionstätigkeit und steigern Produktivitätswachstum. Wie hoch ist die Abgabenlast in Österreich? Wie hat sich diese entwickelt und wo steht Österreich im internationalen Vergleich? Die Abgabenquote aus Steuern und verpflichtenden Sozialbeiträgen in Prozent des Bruttoinlandprodukt lag in Österreich im Jahr 2016 bei 42,9 % (Statistik Austria, Indik...     » Weiterlesen